At the General Election two weeks ago, turnout slumped most in poorer areas – and was 20% higher in the wealthiest seats in the UK
Elli Loose asks: is a growing lack of faith in political solutions in “left behind Britain” to blame? And what can be done to turn it around?
For the past couple of weeks, newspapers, commentators and political analysts have speculated why the voter turnout of the UK’s 2024 General Election was so low, with just under 60% of the eligible population casting their vote. Various reasons have been suggested: the first-past-the-post-system decreasing competition, effects of voter ID, or a sense of complacency with a clear Labour majority predicted from the start. Likely, they all played a part. However, we have taken a step further and looked at voter turnout in specific constituencies – those least and those most deprived. The results are significant.
Our analysis cross-referenced the average voter turnout of the 30 most and 30 least deprived Westminster constituencies in this most recent General Election.[1] (Due to data limitations, this analysis focuses on English constituencies only.) The results are clear: average voter turnout in the 30 least deprived constituencies is around 20% higher than in the 30 most deprived areas. Statistical analysis shows a significant correlation. Equally noteworthy are the percentages of change in turnout. Whereas the drop in least deprived areas is around 5%, it’s more than double that in the most deprived areas with 11%.
Even though this is only data for England, the trend is clear in other nations as well, with deprived areas like Glasgow’s North East turning out at 47% and Northern Ireland’s Belfast West at 53%. Both areas are among the most deprived in their respective nations.
The picture isn’t rosy. (Not that that was ever an expectation.) The more people are deprived of basic living standards – fewer employment opportunities, lower income, little educational provision, high crime levels – the less likely they are to engage in voting and politics as a whole.
This is not new. A research study we commissioned in 2019 with 1424 people living in Scotland, Wales and England showed a significant relationship between income and trust in politicians and in government. The findings from the survey found. Respondents with personal incomes of £60,000 or more were three times more likely to report high levels of trust in politicians than those with personal incomes of £10-20,000. As income rises, so does trust in politicians, and trust in government. As we know, declining trust and the rise of distrust can lead to a decline in voter turnout.
This relationship isn’t new, but it is alarming, especially when considering the larger decline in voter numbers since 2019 in deprived areas compared to least deprived ones. We can only hypothesize why that is so, but it indicates that the last 5 years were especially hard on those most deprived (a fact which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, with Covid and the cost-of-living crisis running rampant) and have disproportionally increased those people’s distrust and belief in the political system and its active representatives who were already the worst off from the get-go.
What else can these numbers tell us about the election and the electorate? Might those in more deprived areas not believe much of the promised ‘change’ narrative Labour drove home with a sledgehammer? A meagre 1% increase in overall vote-share for Labour might support such a claim. Even though most of the deprived areas voted for a Labour candidate, it is startling that those communities – traditionally more likely to vote for Labour – are more likely to stay away from the polling station. Having a quick look at the vote shares in the 6 most deprived areas drives this point home – in 5 out of 6 Labour has recorded massive losses compared to 2019, with either Reform UK or the Green Party gaining more considerably.
These statistics tell a different story than that of the victorious Labour landslide. It should come as a warning to Labour that they have not been able to motivate the least deprived constituencies as much as others. Imagine the vote share they could’ve had here! And, more importantly, imagine the significance of those people in deprived areas actually believing in and turning out for a party they trust will help them improve their lives.
Even though more general trends spanning multiple constituencies and regions have their merit, this quick analysis highlights that a detailed look at individual constituencies and the levels of deprivation they face can give significant insights on voting behaviour and their populations’ interest in active political participation more generally. Engaging with and listening to those living with high levels of deprivation would be a first important step in not only increasing voter turnout but, indeed, improving people’s lives meaningfully.
[1] House of Commons, July 2024: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-data-indices-of-deprivation/
